Calculation of the fair value of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD)
In this article, we’ll estimate the intrinsic value of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There really isn’t much to do, although it might seem quite complex.
There are many ways that businesses can be assessed, so we would like to stress that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. If you still have burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St.
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The calculation
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually, the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth stage. To begin with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flow. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we discount the value of those future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars. hui:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leverage FCF ($, Millions) | 2.40 billion US dollars | US $ 1.53 billion | US $ 1.10 billion | US $ 888.9 million | US $ 775.7 million | US $ 711.2 million | US $ 673.9 million | US $ 653.2 million | US $ 642.9 million | US $ 639.6 million |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x7 | Analyst x5 | Is @ -28.02% | Is @ -19.03% | Is @ -12.73% | Is @ -8.32% | Is @ -5.24% | Is @ -3.08% | Is @ -1.57% | East @ -0.51% |
Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 7.2% | US $ 2.2k | 1.3k USD | 890 USD | US $ 672 | 547 USD | US $ 468 | $ 413 | $ 374 | US $ 343 | $ 318 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = 7.6 billion US dollars
It is now a matter of calculating the Terminal Value, which takes into account all future cash flows after this ten-year period. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 640 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.2% to 2.0%) = US $ 12 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= US $ 12 billion ÷ (1 + 7.2%)^{ten}= US $ 6.1 billion
Total value, or net worth, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is US $ 14 billion. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. From the current share price of US $ 61.9, the company appears to be roughly at fair value at a discount of 8.0% from where the stock price is currently trading. . Remember, however, that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
The hypotheses
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Steel Dynamics as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 7.2%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.204. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Looking forward:
While a business valuation is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a business. The DCF model is not a perfect equity valuation tool. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. If a business grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output can be very different. For Steel Dynamics, you need to assess three relevant factors:
- Risks: As an example, we have found 4 warning signs for Steel Dynamics (2 are a little worrisome!) That you should take into account before investing here.
- Future benefits: How does STLD’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you might not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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