Amid the complex carnage of raw materials, crude managed to limit losses to just over 1%. It remained stable below the $ 71 / bbl mark. The past few days have seen a massive increase in crude, triggered by the IEA report which indicates a tight crude oil market.

Christophe Barret, Senior Oil Market Analyst, AIE, says that in April and May economic activity picked up very quickly and mobility indicators show demand is accelerating very quickly in the United States and in the EU.

“The vaccinated countries are showing a very strong rebound in demand,” explains Barret. In the future, summer could see unusually high demand in the US and the EU

Barret says we are not very far from pre-pandemic crude demand levels “We should see demand return to 2019 levels by Q4CY22, gasoline demand is already very close to what it was in 2019, ”Barret.

So, in the midst of soaring demand, what does the supply picture look like? Barret says the supply is currently sufficient to meet demand throughout the summer, but after the summer the situation will change. “OPEC + has committed to increase supply by 2 million bpd until July and non-OPEC supply could increase by 1 million bpd, but we need additional crude supply from the OPEC because they still have a lot of reserve capacity “

Barret says much of the 1mbpd oil production from non-OPEC producers will come from the United States. “It took a long time for US drillers to bring production on line, but with current prices, US producers are expected to come back and even start investing.”

American drillers make a profit when crude is between $ 50 and $ 60, so current prices are certainly very lucrative for American producers.