OPEC optimism rises, but a massive sell-off could be ahead
Meanwhile, RBC’s Croft warns of geopolitical tensions: File Image / Pixabay
Oil prices on Tuesday benefited from another session of gains, propelled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicting a tight global market in 2022; however, thunderstorm clouds in the form of a massive we massive sales are forming, experts say.
Intermediate West Texas Rose 91 cents settle in $ 76.99 per barrel, while Brent gained $ 1.02 at $ 80 per barrel.
Previously, OPEC predicted a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first three months of 2022, approximately 25 percent less than he estimated a month ago, which, combined with maintaining the market structure in an offset pattern (indicating continued supply tension), has maintained a bullish sentiment.
These are the geopolitical jokers to which we must pay very close attention
Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets
As well, Alexander Novak, vice-president of Russia, said in an interview with Rossiya 24 State TV that the rapid infection rate of omicron is not reducing the demand for oil due to the low level of hospitalizations.
Ed Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas for Oanda, said of Tuesday’s trading activity, “Prices are on the rise after OPEC + has shown more confidence that the outlook for global crude demand will be subject to only a limited impact.”
As for the highly anticipated meeting of OPEC and its allies on Tuesday, the 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia approved the 400,000 barrel-per-day increase scheduled for February.
OPEC has already restarted about two-thirds of the production it cut off at the start of the pandemic, however, with Angola and Nigeria among member countries struggling to meet production targets, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects Ltd., pointed out that “Even though that number is 400,000, what is coming to the market is half of that, maybe even less.”
Experts also fear that the annual reshuffle of billions of dollars in investments in commodities by the S&P GSCI Index and the Bloomberg Commodity Index will soon trigger a strong sales push.
Bloomberg noted on Tuesday that “the pressure of financial flows will affect the benchmark U.S. crude futures contract at a time when prices remain elevated as the recovery in demand and still limited supply from OPEC and its markets. allies help to drain stocks “.
Meanwhile, some analysts have predicted that the global oil market will remain geopolitically sensitive in 2022, with Russia-Ukraine dead end and in progress Iran nuclear negotiations cited as two key elements.
Helima croft, Head of Global Raw Materials Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, remarked: “I think it’s these geopolitical wild cards that we need to pay very close attention to.”