OPEC to revise downward its “optimistic” outlook for oil-sources demand
LONDON, Sept. 10 (Reuters) – OPEC will likely revise downward its oil demand growth forecast for 2022 on Monday, two OPEC + sources said, as the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant casts doubt on it the speed of resumption of fuel consumption.
On September 1, separate sources said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC +, had increased its oil demand forecast for 2022 to 4.2 million barrels per day ( bpd), compared to 3.28 million bpd previously.
The new figure was seen as bullish by some in the group, likely prompting revisions, the two OPEC + sources said. OPEC is expected to release its latest supply and demand forecasts in a report on Monday.
“OPEC may revise the figures for the next monthly report,” one of the sources said, on condition of anonymity.
Governments, businesses and traders are closely monitoring how quickly oil demand recovers after the 2020 collapse. A slower return could weigh on prices and reinforce the idea that the impact of the pandemic could affect consumption patterns longer or permanently.
“The recent forecast for oil demand looks weaker,” PVM broker Stephen Brennock said in a report. “Short and medium term growth is gradually degraded due to the resurgence of COVID-19, especially in Asia. “
Brennock cited figures from the U.S. government forecaster, the Energy Information Administration, which said in its latest outlook for September 8 that demand for oil will exceed 100 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2022.
A month earlier, the EIA expected this milestone to be reached in the fourth quarter of 2021.
OPEC currently has the highest demand growth figures among the three major oil forecasting agencies – itself, the EIA and the International Energy Agency, an adviser to consumer countries that publishes its latest monthly report Tuesday.
In 2021, OPEC expects the demand for oil to increase by 5.95 million b / d, more than the IEA figure of 5.3 million b / d and the forecast for l ‘EIA of 5 million bpd.
For OPEC’s oil demand growth forecast in 2021 to be met, global oil demand must average 99.82 million bpd in the fourth quarter, nearly one million bpd more than the projection of the IEA in the fourth quarter.
Editing by David Evans
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