Weekly outlook: Associated British Foods Q3 update; OPEC meeting; Non-farm payroll in the United States
Monday June 28
-Petrofac half-year results
tuesday 29 june
-Lamprell annual results
-Results 1st semester Hunting
-National UK House Price Survey
– UK money supply growth figures
– UK mortgage approvals and household lending data
-Consumer Confidence Index from the United States Conference Board
– Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the United States
-In the United States, quarterly results from Carnival and Novagold
wednesday june 30
-Annual results of Civitas Social Housing
-Annual results of Dixons Carphone
-Serco half-year results
-Topps Tiles commercial update
-China Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI)
-EU inflation data
-Data on oil stocks in the United States
-Pending home sales figures in the United States
-In the United States, quarterly results for silicon chipmaker Micron, Constellation Brands and Cheerios maker General Mills
Thursday July 1
– Third Quarter Update from Associated British Food
Despite the gradual unblocking of non-essential stores on April 12, the actions of the owner of Primark made no progress. Shares have risen by around a sixth in the past 12 months, but are still down more than a third from their record high price of £ 35 per share at the end of 2015.
“This decline likely reflects the difficulties in the sugar market, concerns over what Brexit may or may not mean in the long term for product supply for Primark and the UK consumer and also more competition for Primark from boohoo, ASOS and other rivals much stronger online proposals, ”says Danni Hewson, financial analyst at AJ Bell.
In the first half of the year, group sales fell 17% or 18% at constant exchange rates. In the third quarter of 2020, AB Foods sales were £ 2.6bn, for a total of £ 10.3bn over nine months and those are the benchmarks for the numbers this time around.
AB Foods predicted that a stronger pound will cut profits by £ 30million for the entire year. Net debt, including leases, stood at £ 2.7bn in the first six months, although Hewson said it would be interesting to see how store reopens contributed to cash flow .
Just over a year ago, the price of oil collapsed as falling demand coincided with a glut of supply and concerns about the cost of storage availability. Since then, prices have recovered, with Brent crude currently trading at around $ 75 a barrel.
However, oil is sensitive to geopolitical issues such as the Iranian presidential election, US-Iran nuclear talks and sanctions, economic chaos in Libya and Venezuela, all of which are influencing supply right now, Hewson notes.
In April 2020, OPEC and Russia reached an agreement to reduce their combined production by 9.7 million barrels per day, or about 10% of world production. The so-called Opec + deal has since been refined and production has slowly increased, bringing total production down to 2.1 million barrels per day to 5.8 million.
Traders and investors, as well as economists and central bankers, will be looking to see if they will increase production or leave it where it is, according to Hewson. Rising oil prices could further fuel inflation.
-John Wood Trade Statement
-Short-term quarterly economic survey of enterprises in Japan – better known as Tankan
-Manufacturing of Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) in Asia, Europe, United Kingdom and United States
-Monthly US car sales figures
-Weekly Unemployment Claims in the United States
-In Europe, quarterly results of H&M and Sodexo
-In the United States, quarterly results of Walgreen Boots Alliance
Friday July 2
-Non-farm wages in the United States
Last month’s non-farm payroll figure far exceeded last month’s expectations as it showed the addition of 559,000 jobs, an improvement from the total of 278,000 in April.
AJ Bell Chief Investment Officer Russ Mold said: “Some economists are still worried that a labor shortage is holding back job creation, which seems bizarre when the unemployment rate is official U3 is 5.8% and the U6 rate is 10.2% ”.
He added that the theory is that the U.S. government’s stimulus checks and job support have been so generous that many workers are tempted to stay home.
The result of a labor shortage could be an increase in wages. The average monthly pay last month was 30.33%, 2% more than the previous year. If wages continue to rise, inflation can become a permanent reality.